Forecast: 5 OTT subscriptions per US home in 2023
May 18, 2021
Based on analysis of over 80 OTT services (over 50 providers), led by Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, HBO, Convergence Research estimates that US OTT access revenue grew by 35 per cent to $29.6 billion in 2020, and forecasts 35 per cent growth to $39.9 billion for 2021, and $59.4 billion for 2023 (double 2020).
Although Independents currently take in more US OTT access revenue, Programmers should surpass Independents in revenue in 2022. Convergence Research forecasts average OTT subscriptions will increase to 5 per OTT household in 2023 from 3 in 2020.
In its 2021 Couch Potato Reports, Convergence Research estimates 2020 US Cable, Satellite, Telco TV access revenue declined 6 per cent to $94.7 billion and forecast a decline of 6.5 per cent to $88.5 billion in 2021 and a decline of 10 per cent in 2023 to $73.4 billion. At current run-rate OTT access revenue will exceed TV access revenue in 2024.
The report estimates 2020 saw a decline of 6.49 million US TV subscribers, 2019 a decline of 6.36 million, and forecasts a decline of 7.35 million subscribers in 2021, and 7.76 million in 2023; hence US TV subscribers declined by 8 per cent in 2020, up from 7 per cent in 2019, and Convergence Research forecasts decline will rise to 10 per cent in 2021 and 13 per cent in 2023.
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