Advanced Television

Forecast: “Cinema revenues 5x more than FAST”

June 1, 2023

By Chris Forrester

María Rua Aguete, Omdia’s Senior Research Director at Media and Entertainment and Technology Fellow, told delegates at the Cine & Tele Pro event in Spain that cinema would stay strong when compared with FAST TV, despite the FAST channel explosion.

The event heard Rua Aguete update Omdia’s data from a similar event in Miami in January this year. Then, Omdia’s forecast was that FAST channels would generate $12 billion by 2027. “This figure increases to $13 billion in 2028, but I always say this, it is an important figure but $11 billon [were in] the US,” she said. “Outside the US there will be many opportunities because its market is already very saturated, but more than 80 per cent of FAST revenues will still be generated within the US.”

But then came Rue Aguete’s reality check. She said: “Cinema and music represent much less compared to these income windows, for example cinema will be close to $50 billion in 2028, which is almost 5 times more than all FAST channels.”

She explained that FAST channels are directly relatable to linear TV, commenting: “FAST has to be a linear collection of content. Not all YouTube is FAST, for example, nor do we consider FAST the online channels of traditional TV networks.”

“The trend towards free platforms where advertising plays an important role is more than evident and is a global trend. In paid services, what we are seeing is that each customer has 3 or 4 services that they use, but not at the same time. This month cancel one and take another, also using many that are free,” she added.

“LG Channels and Samsung Tv Plus are great aggregators of FAST channels, but there is not going to be just one, but there are going to be several leaders. Right now, it’s Samsung and Roku,” Rua Aguete told delegates. “Although those who are agnostic to a specific device are more likely to be in all of them, such as PlutoTV or Rakuten”.

“The FAST business is small outside the US. Broadcasters have to be aware and have to adapt to the digital world, they have to put content to attract young audiences and generate agreements with social networks and with TikTok … whether they want to or not,” she adds. “Right now it’s not very clear who is the friend and who is the enemy, and really those who are doing interesting things are those who are showing open-to-partnership and not those who are still wondering who is winning the Streaming Wars.”

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