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Forecast: Netflix to remain SVoD leader

September 20, 2022

Global SVoD subscriptions will increase by 475 million between 2021 and 2027 to reach 1.68 billion, according to the SVOD Forecasts Update report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. Six US-based platforms will account for 47 per cent of the world’s total in 2027.

“Our forecasts in June had Disney+ [274 million subscribers] overtaking Netflix [253 million subs] by 2027,” notes Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “These forecasts assumed that Disney+ Hotstar would retain the India Premier League cricket rights. It didn’t – hence the 67 million lower forecast for Disney+.”

“SVoD revenues for Disney+ will reach $15 billion by 2027,” he advises. “Despite lowering our forecasts by 67 million subscribers, SVoD revenues for Disney+ will be the same in 2027 as our previous forecast. SVoD ARPUs and revenues will increase in key markets after the platform introduces the hybrid AVoD-SVoD tier and the more expensive SVoD-only tier.”

Netflix will remain the revenue winner, with $30 billion expected by 2027 – similar to Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+ combined. Global SVoD revenues will reach $132 billion by 2027.

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