SpaceX has reportedly told some of its investors that it expected overall revenues this financial year to be in the region of $8 billion (€7.1bn) – double the revenues of 2022.

However, this sum is less than some have forecast (around $11.6 billion).

A report from The Information says: “The expectation for rapid growth helps explain the fervor of some investors for SpaceX shares, which have defied recently depressed private tech valuations. The company, valued in a secondary share sale at about $150 billion this month, has also assured investors it expects to pull in about $3 billion in operating profits this year, at least by a measure that excludes expenses tied to building rockets and satellites.”

Consultant and analyst Tim Farrar, of TMF Associates, says this revised forecast might still be too optimistic. He reminds readers that the expected revenue at SpaceX (for rocket launches for commercial and government clients as well as subscriber income from its Starlink broadband service) was quoted last year at $4.6 billion and expected to grow to $11.6 billion this year.

“These sums are widely optimistic,” claimed Farrar.

There are, inevitably, some ‘known unknowns’ in all these forecasts. SpaceX is privately held and does not have to break down its revenues – unless it mounts an IPO.

On the rocket-launching side of SpaceX’s business, it now has a near monopoly in handling US and international commercial and even scientific missions. With further delays to the United Launch Alliance’s rockets, as well as the non-availability of anything from Arianespace, leaves SpaceX in a commanding position.

One the Starlink side of the business, the more recent claim (in May) from SpaceX is that it had achieved 1.5 million subscribers. However, SpaceX says it is adding around 3600 new subscribers daily. That sort of progress could easily add another 500,000 by the end of this year – and perhaps far more given the rate that new markets are opening up for Starlink.

SpaceX is currently launching an improved version of the original Starlink satellites and these new versions can handle 4-times the data payload. Starlink is also busy adding Cruise liners and aircraft broadband to its system.

Other posts by Chris Forrester:

1. Terran Orbital looking at strategic options
2. Analyst: Starlink progress exceeding expectations
3. SES vs Intelsat litigation: “held in abeyance”
4. Doubts grow over IRIS² scheme
5. Scotland’s rocket launch gets closer
6. SpaceX tops 6,300 Starlinks; IPO rumours
7. Full details of SES, Intelsat deal
8. Ariane 6 launch campaign underway
9. Virgin Galactic in stock split

Categories: Blogs, Broadband, Business, Inside Satellite, Satellite

Tags: spacex, starlink